NICK SCHIFRIN: But U.S.

officials say there# is no final deal with those or any countries## to actually deploy into Gaza.

And there's also no# agreement on Gaza's future governance, which, in## addition to a Trump-led Board of Peace, requires# the naming of an apolitical Palestinian committee.

For more, we turn to two "News Hour" regulars,# David Makovsky of the Washington Institute for## Near East Policy and Hussein Ibish# of the Arab Gulf States Initiative.

Thanks very much.

Welcome back to# the "News Hour" to both of you.

(CROSSTALK) NICK SCHIFRIN: Hussein, let me start with you.

HUSSEIN IBISH, Senior Resident Scholar,# .. NICK SCHIFRIN: You.. Arab countries would go in and disarm Hamas if# Hamas did not disarm itself.

Is that possible?

HUSSEIN IBISH: No one is going to do this dirty# work.

No one is going to clean up Israel's mess## for it or Hamas' mess.

These are the two parties# that have created the reality in Gaza.

There is## no third party that's going to come in and# resolve it to everyone else's satisfaction.

So that's a fantasy.

And it's# a fantasy that's existed from## day one.

But people should abandon that# fantasy because it's not going to happen.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Abandon that fantasy?

DAVID MAKOVSKY, Senior Fellow, Washington## Institute for Near East Policy: Look, I think# where Hussein and I agree is, we do.. A, Hamas voluntarily disarming.

They rule# through weapons like AK-47s and the like.

And we also agree that#no international stabilization force, peacekeepers, call them whatever you will -- and# I talk to Arab officials all the time and say,## David, we're not going in there.

It's dangerous.

HUSSEIN IBISH: Yes.

DAVID MAKOVSKY: .. just recently.

I just came back from the# West Bank and Israel.

And the Palestinian## Authority is willing to go in right# now.

This government doesn't want it.

HUSSEIN IBISH: That's the answer,#though.

It's other Palestinians#can disarm Hamas, but.. NICK SCHIFRIN: But, of course, Israel rejects# the Palestinian Authority going in, right?

HUSSEIN IBISH: Absolutely.

Right.

And, in fact,## Israel prefers to deal with Hamas# than the.. a deranged enemy with an impossible goal# like Hamas, that's kind of good for you.

If you regard all Palestinians as the enemy,# much more dangerous is the Palestinian Authority,## which wants a small Palestinian# state in the West Bank alongside## Israel.

That's an achievable goal.# And that's scary for the Israelis.

NICK SCHIFRIN: David Makovsky, let me ask you# this.

I mean, you guys have been saying that## no one will go in and do this.

Israel# and Hamas have to do this themselves.

But does Israel want to go to the phase two?

And, frankly, does#Hamas want?

Or are they both satisfied with the status quo?

And are they# fearful of taking that next step?

DAVID MAKOVSKY: No, no, look, I# think it's a very fair question.

And for our viewers, there's a lot of detail.

So,# I mean, I think what we're looking at in here,## Hussein and I might disagree, I see two# Gazas right now.

I see the yellow line,## meaning within the Green Zone, where there's# basically no Hamas or -- of substantial numbers.

NICK SCHIFRIN: This is basically# east or south of that... DAVID MAKOVSKY: Right,# whatever you want to call that.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Israeli-controlled Gaza.

DAVID MAKOVSKY: Right,# Israeli-controlled, which is 53 percent.

And, there, you could see some construction# in Rafah.

And you can envisage things getti.. better.

The red zone, though, is where 90 percent# of the Gazans actually live and, I should say,## where almost all the trucks are going on the# humanitarian side, 4,200 a week.

That's 600 a day.

I remember we used to talk about 100 trucks# during the war.

Now there's 600 a day.

But## Hamas is there.

And I feel the only ones are# either Israel or the Palestinian Authority.

HUSSEIN IBISH: That's it.

DAVID MAKOVSKY: .. No, that Israel can live#with that.

And I am not as certain as... NICK SCHIFRIN: So you think Israel# doesn't want the status quo?

DAVID MAKOVSKY: No, I think they give# this until March.

They will say we gave## this a half-a-year for the second Gaza, the# red zone Gaza.

We're fine with the green## zone Gaza.

We will do whatever Trump# wants.

We will do whatever you want.

But on the Hamas Gaza, if they don't disarm by# March, when the weather starts getting better,## Israel's going to start going# in there in slices militarily.

HUSSEIN IBISH: I actually agree# with that.

I think that's right.

But, again, we're going to be# back in the same unwinnable war.## Israel's not going to do better in phase five of# this war than they did in the first four phases,## that I count anyway.

And now they're controlling## not 53 percent, 58 percent.

Almost all of the# fertile land in Gaza is controlled by Israel.

But almost all the Palestinians are# huddled together on these sandy beaches,## where there's nothing.

And it's not a# sustainable reality for any of the three## parties, for the Palestinian people,# not at all.

For Israel, as David said,## they're not going to be satisfied.

And in the# end, Hamas is not going to be happy either.

So this war is likely to start again,# especially if the Israeli election is## already over.

I'm not sure Netanyahu wants... NICK SCHIFRIN: ... has to be# by the fall of 2026, right.

HUSSEIN IBISH: By October, but more# likely by May or somethi.. HUSSEIN IBISH: I'm not sure Netanyahu wants to# go into the election pursuing an unpopular war.

DAVID MAKOVSKY: Well, the... NICK SCHIFRIN: No, no, has Israel and Hamas# -- and let.. Have Israel and Hamas lived# up to the cease-fire so far?

DAVID MAKOVSKY: OK, I think, in the big# picture, and we may have some disagreements,## Israel released 250 people convicted in courts for# killing Israelis.

That was a big deal -- of life## sentences -- 1,700 detainees, 4,200 trucks a# week, which was critical so people could have## food at least, even though it's inadequate, as# your setup piece says, because it's winter there.

So, I mean, I don't -- but I think# that those to me were some of the## big ticket issues.

Are there things like# the Rafah Crossing?

It's a very fragile## cease-fire.

There are there all sorts of# complaints about violations on all sides.

But I think, in the big picture, yes.# I just think the disarmament issue is## not a footnote.

It's central.

If there's# going to be a hope for the Gaza people,## Hamas has got to get out of the way.

And# I don't see who's getting them out of the## way.

I disagree respectfully with the president# that 59 countries are going to wipe them out.

And I just don't think that happens.

And you want# to solve these things peacefully if you can.

But## I think Hamas' view is, in the Middle East,# the people who fire the shots call the shots,## and they fire the shots.

So, no# one is going to displace them.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Hussein Ibish, sorry.

Have# Israel, have Hamas lived up to the cease-fire?

HUSSEIN IBISH: Well, I was about to address that.

No, not really, because the key part# of the cease-fire is stopping firing,## ceasing firing.

And that hasn't happened.# Hamas has been doing incursions,## but Israel has been keeping up a barrage# of seven to nine people a day killed.## And it's over 400.

At least 80 of them# are children.

That's not a cease-fire.

In any other situation, you would# say the war continues to bleed these## people.

It's only in comparison to the# 90 a day or so that we had before.

So## I would say the answer is no.

And# the only alternative to Hamas is a## Palestinian one.

And it's the one thing I# know Netanyahu is never going to agree to.

NICK SCHIFRIN: David Makovsky, just very quickly,# I want to bring up what I brought up at the end## of the piece.

That is this plan to rebuild# Rafah, which you mentioned, Eastern Gaza,## as a way to incentivize Palestinians, not# only to move, to leave their land right now,## which will remain unconstructed, and move# across the yellow line and disarm for money.

We only have about 40 seconds left.

Is that a## realm of possibility that# that could actually work?

DAVID MAKOVSKY: I don't think# it will in significant terms.

Like, 90 percent of the Gazans right now# are on the Hamas side of the yellow line.

HUSSEIN IBISH: Right.

DAVID MAKOVSKY: .. 43 percent of the West Bank -- 50 -- 47# percent of the West Bank -- of Gaza.

Excuse me.

I don't see the Gazans leaving their# land for a promise on the other side,## when all the main cities are on# the Hamas side.

So that's why,## to me, this was such a critical meeting in# Mar-a-Lago.

Is there a meeting of the minds## about the red zone, about the Hamas side?# Everything else, you could work around.

HUSSEIN IBISH: This solution is not# nonstarter.

It's not going to happen.## The answer is no to your question.

The# answer is, no, that's not going to work.

And neither is the status quo.

So I'm# afraid a return to war is very likely.

NICK SCHIFRIN: We will have to leave it there.

Hussein Ibish, David Makov.. to both of you.

HUSSEIN IBISH: Thank you so mu.. NICK SCHIFRIN: Thank you.

HUSS..